Russsia’s policy as escalation management. A reply to our reader.

Reading time: 4 minutes

Our reader, JMF, came up with an extensive comment to the article Eurofascism, like 80 years ago, is a common enemy of Moscow and Washington, which we felt warranted an equally thoughtful reply in an article of its own.

In contrast to the SVR Press article, I submit the following:

“US Plays ‘Mediator’ in its Own War on Russia”
Brian Berletic, April 22, 2025

I’ve read Brian Berletic’s analyses for years, and find him an incredibly astute observer.

I read the SVR piece with some trepidation: not because its recognition of Euro-fascism is misplaced — it certainly isn’t — but because it seemingly gives too much credence to a potentially beneficent role on the part of the US.

Knowing many aspects of my country’s darker history and recognizing our current “Fuehrer’s” malign tendencies, I’ve grown somewhat alarmed by Russia’s apparent warming toward the US. I hardly think that any “alliance” is eventually likely between our two countries, as the SVR article speculates in its conclusion. To the contrary, the current negotiations strike me as extremely self-serving for the US side. And should a war break out between Europe and Russia, I strongly suspect that the US stance would be much like that of Harry Truman (while still in Congress) during World War 2: ‘Let the two sides exhaust each other, and then we’ll move in and pick up the pieces.’ [paraphrased]

The SVR piece also quotes a US academic regarding Britain’s employment of “concentration camps and genocide”. But as I recall from other reading, Hitler’s inspiration was drawn directly from the US internment and genocide of native Americans. And several other observations can be as equally applied to the US as to Europe.

I sincerely hope that Messrs. Putin and Lavrov remain extremely cautious and sceptical when dealing with the Trump administration. While Witkoff seems a sincere negotiator, he is only the messenger, in this case for a likely pack of wolves dressed in sheep’s clothing.

Here, JMF added the entire quote:

“If we see that Germany is winning we ought to help Russia and if Russia is winning we ought to help Germany, and that way let them kill as many as possible, although I don’t want to see Hitler victorious under any circumstances. Neither of them thinks anything of their pledged word.”
– Senator Harry S. Truman


Reply from Beorn And The Shieldmaiden

Brian Berletic’s publications are, indeed, well-worth reading, and we often forward his Telegram posts to our channel.

This article “US Plays ‘Mediator’ in its Own War on Russia” is no exception and overall, we agree with the analysis in Brian’s article. Incidentally, toward the end it contains one paragraph that in a way addresses the concern, outlined by JMF:

Russia, for its part, has left the door open for honest negotiations and has provided the United States ample exit ramps from both an unwinnable proxy war and indefinite confrontation with Russia into the future. The US is obviously not interested. Russia had, throughout “peace talks” with the US, continued its war of attrition against Ukrainian forces, continuing the process the New York Times describes as the central contributing factor for the proxy war’s current failure.

The Shieldmaiden and I also pondered the seemingly contradictory policy of Russia towards the USA, and The Shieldmaiden came with a concise and encompassing definition: “escalation management”.

Russia, just like the USSR in 1938-1940, is doing its utmost to prevent a world war, without conceding own interests. The goals for the SMO have been set in 2022: denazification and demilitarisation of Ukraine. And, as Peskov said the other day, they will be achieved regardless, either through peaceful means or militarily. Naturally, a peaceful realisation of those objectives is preferable.

So, what Russia is doing now, is a pro-active escalation management as multiple levels and dimensions are involved in the diplomacy of shaping the battlefield for the best outcome control in predicted risk situations, including psychological ones. Russian is guiding Trump’s impulsive and unpredictable emotionally-charged presidency into a more subdued form, balanced out by equally emotional (and economic) counterweights. Hopefully this will contribute to prevention of World War III flaring up on the usual battlefield – Europe.

EU, for its part, has already designated 2030 as “the year when Russia will invade Europe”, which, applying the 180 degree rule, means that Europe is planning the next “drang nach osten” for that year. This is what Russia need to avoid, using Trump’s impulsivity if need be, to achieve that goal. That is also the underlying motive for the article from the SVR, to rebuild the diplomatic ties with the USA as the only force that can influence Europe.

Still, Russia is very much mindful of the history of WWII and the preceding years. As in this contemporary Soviet caricature from “Kukryniksy” about the “Munich Conspiracy”, where UK and France are offering Czechoslovakia to the German wolf, while hilding up the sign with the words, pointing “To the East”.