Two Ukraines – with a Statistical and Historical View at Novorossia

The original article “Two Ukraines” appeared as blog by colonelcassad in Decmber 2013 in Russian.

I present here a translation of the article into English, with the infographics legend explained whenever feasible; but first I want to give some historical backdrop to where Novorossia comes from.

In his article Cold War Renewed With A Vengeance While Washington Again Lies Paul Craig Roberts very astutely writes:

The EU, ordered by Washington, told Russia to suppress the opposition in southern and eastern Ukraine to Washington’s stooge government in Kiev. But, as every educated person knows, including the White House, 10 Downing Street, Merkel, and Holland, Russia is not responsible for the separatist unrest in eastern and southern Ukraine. These territories are former constituent parts of Russia that were added to the Ukrainian Soviet Republic by Soviet Communist Party leaders when Ukraine and Russia were two parts of the same country.

The county of Novorossia was established by the Highest Decree of the Russian Empress Ekaterina II in 1764 and existed until 1802, when it was divided into three smaller counties: Nikolaevskaja, Ekaretinoslavskaja and Tavricheskaja counties. The reason for creation of Novorossia countie on the former territories of Slavjano-Serbia was to create a buffer zone against Osmano-Tatar aggression

Below is the maps of the Novorossia:
1800_Novoros_gov

And here is the Ekaterinoslavskaja county shown against the borders of Ukraine:
Gubernia_de_Ekaterinoslav_-_Imperio_ruso

Here is what Ukraine consited of until February (Crimea made a lucky escape and re-joined Russia):
Ukraina1653
Legend:
Light yellow – Zaprozhje – Ukraine before 1654
Orange – Presents of Russian monarchs between 1654 and 1917
Light-green – Novorossia – Lenin’s present in 1922
Medium-green (5+6) – Eastern Galicia – Stalin’s present of 1939-1940 (given to USSR according to Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement)
Dark-green – Crimea – Khrushjov’s present in 1954
Transcarpathia (9) – taken from Czechoslovakia in 1945
Northern Bukovina and Southern Southern (7+8) – captured by USSR in 1940

So bearing in mind that Ukraine is a collection of disparate lands, and remembering the Russian roots of the Cossacks living on the lands of Novorossia, the move performed by Lenin after the coup d’etat of 1917, in creating Ukraine and assigning to it the territories of Novorossia was a direct recipe for creating a problem for future generations.

The people of the East differ to much from their Polish-rooted Western cousins.

And now it’s time to introduce the translation of the blog post Two Ukraines.



(Legend: “Yukraina” to the left; “Yakraina” to the right, with percentage of people who voted for Yushenko or Yanukovich during the last legitimate presidential elections)

People asked here about the possible lines of division of Ukraine. In fact, there is nothing new since 2004. Political, economic, cultural and linguistic split historically goes along the Dnieper and it’s not for nothing that from the olden times Ukraine into the Right-bank and Left-bank Ukraines. It’s been written a lot on this topic both in the context of elections, and in the context of the policy of Ukrainianization, in the context of confrontation of the “orange” and “blue” – those who are interested in the question, can trace the genesis of this split in the days Hetmanate and Pereyaslavska Rada (1654).

So just for the information some infographics of recent years on the topic, as some friends in Russia are fed the official idea of ​​Ukraine as a certain monolithic state.

Map_of_Ukrainian_dialects_en


(Ethno-linguistic map. Legend:
Red – speaking Ukrainian
Light-read – mainly speaking Ukrainian
Yellow – speaking Russian
Light-yellow – mainly speaking Russian
Brown – ethnic Russians)


(The percentage of people stating Russian as their mother tongue as per 2001 [Kiev: 30%, Sevastopol: 90%])

dve-ukraini-b2af65
(Language used. The numbers are for Russian, Surzhik [and mix of Russian and Ukrainian] and Ukrainian. Legend:
Dark-green – absolute domination of Russian
Light-green – mainly Russian
Orange – Ukrainian)

2589266_4767033b
(Support for Russian as an official state language)

S6U_zRKfqBQ
(Geography of requests done in Ukrainian language)

yazuk
(Regions that have local officially state status of Russian language. Can you see why Crimea sailed away, correlating this map with the previous ones?)

O_uVH08wpnk
The proportion of users, who stated their mother tongue as Russian (blue) or as Ukrainian (red) in the popular social media VKontakte [“Russian Facebook”].

11_10_2
(Religious split. Simplified legend:
Pink – Orthodox church
Blue overstrikes – Catholic influence
Light-green overstrikes – Protestant infuence)

Ukraine_economy1
(Ukrainian producing economy. The legend is too big to translate, but one can see that most of the production is concentrated in the East)

Украина-2
(The East voted for Kuchma, the West – for Kravchuk)

0_28d73_9ae54968_L
The “orange” split during the elections of 2004

1024px-Ukraine_ElectionsMap_Nov2004
The results of the second round of elections in 2004.

2004-ukraine-presidential-districts-third
The results of the third round of elections in 2004, after the “orange revolution.

460px-Ukr_elect06_1
(The results of the election of 2006. Blue – Party of the Regions)

Ukrainian_parliamentary_election,_2007_(first_place_results)
Parliamentary elections of 2007.

ias_01_ru
(The results of the first round of Presidential elections of 2010. Legend:
Dark blue – Yanukovich
Red – Timoshenko)

4b7113314fde4
Voting results during 2010 elections.

1369635406_01
(The leaders of the parliamentary elections of 2012. Legend:
Blue – Leading: Party of the Regions
Red – Leading: Batkivshina
Upper number – percentage who voted for the leading party)

tLssC88NlHs
(A small curiosity the geography of statues of Lenin)


Adding to the blog translation, here some of the latest infographics:
Явка_виборців_на_позачергових_виборах_Президента_України_2014_по_округах
Attendance in % during the (p)residential (s)election of 2014.

Finally:
Total number of registered voters in the South East: 14,854,013
Total number of votes cast in the South East during the 2014 elections: 5,162,665
Turnout: 34.76%

Almost two-thirds of the voters boycotted the polls, and still the NATOis claiming that the elections were legit.

The last two images come from Gallup polls, outlined in this Russia Today article

Now, on with the blog translation:


And so on. Google for more if you like – there’s been produced lots of such maps over the last 10 years, covering various aspects.

It is not difficult to notice a fault line has long been established and all political upheavals have definitely weak influence on it. Neither
Yushchenko’s victory in 2004, nor Yanukovich’s victory in 2009 could change anything. And even if Ukraine joins the EU or the Customs Union, nothing is going to changes. This structural break in the case of Ukraine is unavoidable, and sooner or later will lead to its complete destruction, where the fault lines will serve as possible borders between two or more parts, defined by the economy, politics, culture and language. This is not some news and is regularly mulled over in Ukrainian political establishment, where, as a possible panacea such a scenario, which is constantly hanging over Ukraine, there are proposed various federation or even confederation schemes, in order to keep the current territories in some unified framework.


(Possible federative structure of Ukraine)

To me it seems that the design is unstable at the foundation and will inevitably fall with the destruction of the current world order, which provides a formal safety for the existing borders.

Altogether, all of this could seamlessly coexist within the Soviet model, where the issues of religious, ethnic and linguistic strife,
did not have much importance, and Ukraine was strictly economically integrated into a single economic organism of the USSR. In terms of language and
culture in Ukraine in Soviet times, both Russian as a state language and Ukrainian, as part of the local culture, coexisted organically. Citizens of the UkSSR were primarily Soviet citizens, and only then Russians, Ukrainians, Jews, Tatars, Greeks. When a single body of the Soviet Union was destroyed, all
that organically coexisted in the UkSSR, could no longer get along, and that leads to permanent conflicts through political, economics, religion, language. Capitalism cannot solve these problems within the framework of Ukraine, that’s why the conflict is permanent and unsolveable it in the current
Ukraine. I hope it will make more clear to fiend in Russia why what happens in Ukraine does so year after year.


(The population of Ukraine in millions of people. The population count fell by 6 million people.)

Population decreased from nearly 52 million to 45, even though in most complex demographic period during the 30s, which accounted for famine and repressions, Ukraine’s population continued to grow. While now, during 20 years of freedom and independence, without GULAGs and Stalin, the population is
reduced by more than 7 million people.

302875_301469219965475_224334435_n
(Population forecast – And this is not the limit!)

According to forecasts, by 2050 it is reduced to 25-26 million and there are more even pessimistic forecasts on on the topic of total extinction of Ukrainians as a nation by the start of the XXII century.

A considerable part of the working population works abroad because in the country either does not have work to give or the pay is inadequate. Proceeds from migrant workers make up a significant portion of GDP Ukraine, which from the industrial republic turned into backward state, supplying the global market with cheap labour, besides the Ukrainian prostitutes that became canonical.


(Money transfers from abroad into Ukraine (red), vs transfers out of the country (green))

Over the last 20 years the country suffered economic losses comparable to the ones during the Nazi occupation (see http://hranive.ru/4762/).

(The diagrams blow by how many times production of various goods reduced in Ukraine:)

Sugar
(Sugar)

Meat
(Meat)

textile
(Textile)

Pigs
(Pigs)

Cars
(Cars)

Tractors
(Tractors)

Steel
(Steel)

Cattle
(Cattle)

Railway goods transportation
(Railway goods transportation)

Passenger aviation
(Passenger aviation)

Coal mining
(Coal mining)

Cast iron
(Cast iron)

House building velocity
(House building velocity)

Shoes
(Shoes)

Trucks and lorries
(Trucks and lorries)

Poultry
(Poultry)

Electricity
(Electricity)

Cement
(Cement)

GDP
(GDP of Ukraine reduced from 518 billion dollars to 337 billion dollars)

In this regard, the term “Two of Ukraine” carries a certain dualism – internal structure split into two roughly equal parts, reflects the effects of the transition from a socialist UkSSR to a capitalist “independent Ukraine”. USSR was not an ideal state and there was a lot of internal problems, but against the backdrop of the abominations that are being done on its territories for the last 22 years, those problems seemed far-fetched and ridiculous against the background of ethnic hatred, blatant social inequality and poverty, cultural and moral degradation and extinction of the population and many others
things that accompany capitalism. And those who in 1991 voted for the “independence”, to some extent, are reaping the fruits of their choice.


(Didn’t want to live in Republics? Then live in colonies.)

It’s not fair to those who voted against it, and those, like I, who could not take part in this choice. But anyway, the choice was made and the results are before us.

At the end of 2013 we got a chronically sick country split into two parts and a whole bunch of degradation trends in virtually all areas of socio-economic, cultural and scientific development. Therefore Ukraine naturally called a Failed State or colloquially TSM – temporary state misunderstanding. Sad, but a regular fate for the once-mighty Soviet republic mired in capitalist swamp.

The Wild-Wild West

This letter was printed in the #10/2014 international paper edition of Argumenty i Facty in Russian at the time when the Second Maidan was about to turn violent. It presents an interesting background view on the situation from a perspective of a person living in Kiev. Here is an English translation of the letter:


If someone says Ukraine nowadays, a word combination “West-East” is always attached to it.

I’ve lived in Kiev centre for 22 years. When I was 6, I for the first time went to the “west” with my parents – to Lvov, and asked in a shop there to sell me a bun. The female seller demonstratively didn’t hear me, as if I was speaking Chinese. A granny from the queue called me for “little moskal” (translator note: the term “moskal” is used by Western Ukrainian about all Easter Ukrainians and Russians and has the same connotation as British “Frogs” with regards to French of Mexican “Greengos” with regard to Americans). My mother, blushing brokenly translated my request to Ukrainian, and I got my bun after all, while at the same time taking away the feeling of a united and friendly Motherland.

Ukraine adjusted itself to its “wild-wild west” since 1939, the moment when the Western territories were officially ascended into USSR. “Western super race” dictates to the “grey central-eastern majority” (which in fact feeds it!) its rules and conditions, which became especially starkly apparent during Euromaidan. Over the course of a few months Westerners have defecated one of the most beautiful cities in Europe. It’s doubtful if they’d allowed to pee in the yards of the “central houses” of Lvov.

In the Western Ukraine, the inter-national strife and fights were even more ruthless than in the Baltics. It’s especially remarkable that the “central Kievans” were repressed there even with more passion than, for example, Moscovites – only because in the Westerners’ view we lived in “undeserved chocolate” (translator note: “privilege”). All my trips to western Ukraine we always conducted in a state of extreme stress.

…Once we go to the ski resort of Jaremch, sent from the central Kiev House of Pioneers – during check in at the hotel we tell the receptionist that “we came from Ivano-Frankovshina” (translator note: the last word written in Ukrainian), so as to be housed without problems. In Kiev University we are forced to study the subject under the name of… “Basics of Ukrainian Nationalism”, which praises Stepan Bandera, and during the exams, the exemplary students are from “the west”.

Already one year ago I was listening to conversations about dividing Ukraine, and though: what nonsense if this? Yes, the west and the east are very different. But how can one imagine my country without the emerald slopes of the Carpathian mountains, the brown taste of Lvov coffee and ascent to the mountain Goverla – the highest point in Ukraine? After having be smoked in the hellish smoke of barricades, built by the westerners in Kiev, I suddenly realised – it’s possible! And quite probable it must be so – so that the westerners would finally realise what they had all these years from the hated by them “overDnieprjanshina”.

For the reference: Lvovsk, Ivano-Frankovsk, Ternopolsk, Volynsk and Rovensk regions, which contain 14% of Ukrainian populations stand for only 8%(!) of the industrial production of the country. Donetsk region alone, having only 10% of the Ukrainian population produces 21% of the industrial products! Therefore all speculations about the west separating from the east are nothing more than speculations. What will they live of? The GDP of the Greater Volyn is only 1.3% of the Ukraine’s GDP. The average salary in the west is the lowest in the country. The experts compare the economic development of the Carpathian soil to that of Zimbabwe! And the Western Ukraine has 7 times lower GDP comparing to that of Belarus, which Western Ukraine is comparable to in terms of population count.

— Oksana Sviridenko


I can add to that from the translator and observer perspective, that Donbass region transferred to the central government 95%-97% of the their income in the form of various taxes – in other words, only 3%-5% stayed in the region and could be used for its development. The main reason for federalisation, in addition to the right to use Russian as mother tongue, was fro the finances to stay in the region in greater proportion. Both requests shot down (literally) by the central government, which is comprised solely of westerners.